Electricity Mix Scenario for 2050
Looking to the future, electricity scenarios combine demand and supply inputs into possible pictures of the coming years.
On the demand side they take into account factors such as population, gross domestic product (GDP), and technology to form a load forecast. On the supply side, they consider such variables as the cost of fuels, regulatory constraints, site availability, transmission and distribution potential, and the odds of social acceptance.
For the purposes of Vision 2050, the National Energy Board (NEB) report Canada’s Energy Future: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035, provides a concrete point of departure for highlighting some relevant issues and variables that could shape or alter the electricity sector’s path to 2050.
The NEB envisions some interesting changes but largely incremental changes in the electricity mix, which is already relatively clean and low carbon, and identifying the underlying factors impacting this base-case scenario.
For all of their value, however, a caveat is also in order: scenarios often omit important intervening factors that can dramatically change the longer-term picture. The longer the forecast, the more likely it is to overlook some significant trend.
Therefore, it is important to highlight some of the key variables that will make a difference in the overall composition, size, management and financial levers of the electricity mix through to 2050.
Read more about the possible energy mix scenarios for 2050 in the full Vision 2050 report. Download Vision 2050.